zondag 11 juli 2010

Holland v Spain pre match thoughts: Oranje's run so far

The football fan

So Holland is in the final of the worldcup and I still can’t believe it…
This lucky and dull team somehow made it to the final of the 2010 worldcup, and thereby making a mockery of the great Dutch teams of the past. If Johan Cruyff was dead he should be turning in his grave: his legacy of attacking (total) football that he introduced in the seventies has been tarnished by this year’s team. Can you imagine? This 2010 team featuring one André Ooijer and Stijn Schaars, winning the worldcup, while the ’74 team, with football legends Ruud Krol and Wim van Hanegem somehow couldn’t win. A Dutch win in the final would be a loss to football.

Let’s take a look at this Dutch team shall we?
Goalkeeper Maarten Stekenburg: Nothing special. Yes, he made some decent saves against Slovakia and Brazil, but his howler against Uruguay proved he’s not world-class material.

Right full back Gregory van der Wiel; He has some talent but looked completely lost against Slovakia and he seemed just too nervous in the Brazil game.

Left full back Gio van Bronckhorst: He is ancient; it’s still surprising no team has been able to challenge him this world cup.

Centre back pairing John Heitinga and Joris Mathijssen: Both are overachievers. They are slow and their heading ability is average at best. Johnny can’t tackle while Joris always will make one howler every game.

Holding midfielders Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong: Van Bommel is useful in his own annoying way: he should have been sent off at least 3 times this world cup. De Jong: decent tackler but he can’t pass and he has a tendency to win stupid bookings, thereby getting his team in trouble.

Attacking midfielder Arjen Robben: Always injured and when he plays he always dives.

Attacking midfielder Wesley Sneijder: Must be the luckiest player at this worldcup. Yes, he has 5 goals to his name, but all but one were goalkeeping errors or deflected shots. His overall play has been disappointing.

Attacking midfielder Dirk Kuyt: He is just a hardworking player, nothing more.

Striker Robin van Persie: Great talent, but is a massive underachiever this worldcup.

Let’s face it this Oranje has been very lucky this world cup: They won their first game through an own goal against Denmark, the second game was won because of a goalkeeping error and their final group game was basically just a friendly. And then there were the knockout stages: in the second round they were lucky to escape with a 2-1 win against minnows Slovakia. In the quarters against Brazil, they should have been down by 3 goals at least before the interval. And Holland only won because of a goalkeeping mistake and a Brazil player who went completely mad. Then there was the game against Uruguay, were Holland had trouble beating a team missing their goalscorer and their best defender.

This team tries to be ‘well-organized’ while they are leaking goals left and right. They can’t convert their chances, have difficulty passing the ball, can’t get their striker involved, they are collecting booking with cynical fouls and they dive. As a fan of football, I think this Dutch team was just fortunate getting this far and was lucky that other teams massively underperformed this world cup.

For the final, I just hope Holland doesn’t embarrass themselves against Spain.


The Dutchman

So Holland is in the final of the worldcup and I still can’t believe it…
Before the tournament nobody thought this Dutch team would get this far, there was doubt about the goalkeeper, the back four was laughed at, their midfield was judged to be solid but unspectacular, only the Dutch attack was rated as competent. Doesn’t that make this Dutch world cup run more remarkable?

While this Holland team plays very dull football, even duller if you remember Dutch teams of the past, they do have a kind of invincibility about them that Oranje didn’t have in the past.
The history of Dutch football has always been marred by playing nice attacking football and then losing in excruciating fashion. It’s nice to have a team that just wins for real rather than just win sympathy. And while most people in the Netherlands (and around the world) would prefer to see Holland play their normal attacking football, it’s not this team’s fault it has to carry the burden of attacking football. In other words: you can’t blame this team for not being the 1974 team. They are their own team. And besides if this was an Italian team would we really care how they got to the final? Wouldn’t we say: Italians just know how to win?

In (lazy) world cup previews the Dutch team is always characterized as underachieving and with infighting. The strength of this Oranje however, is undoubtedly their team spirit. In the past it’s always been said that Holland can’t win if they played bad, this team characterized itself by playing ugly and winning. Credits should go to Bert van Marwijk for this, who brought a new identity to Dutch football, maybe not as pretty as we want but it is a winning identity. And winning has been lacking for a long time.

Some describe this team as lucky. While there is no denying Holland had some luck getting to the final, it’s not fair to say they got this far just because they are lucky. The people who call Holland fortunate point to the Brazil game as prime example: although Brazil was much better in the first half, the seleção didn’t create a lot of chances if you look at it objectively. Also the referee's decisions didn’t benefit Holland in that game.

The performance in their semi final game certainly wasn’t a prime one if you consider that Uruguay was playing with a depleted team. But on the other had you should also consider: Uruguay had nothing to lose as massive underdogs, also Holland was missing one of their most important players: Nigel de Jong.

Germany has played wonderful football this great world cup, causing Dutch pundits to proudly describe the way the way the Mannschaft plays as 'typical Dutch'(like most people in the world, we like to take credit for other people success). And despite the rivalry that still exists between the Germans and the Dutch, this German team is held in high regard. And although their free flowing football has been great, I do like to point out that Germany has played teams that like to attack while Holland played very defensive teams for the most part. It’s hard to look good against defensive teams.

Maybe Holland will lose the game against Spain; because, let’s be honest, that would be the most logical outcome of the final. But I am sure Bert van Marwijk’s team will make it very difficult for Spain and who knows, this Dutch team has surprised me more than once.

Projected Dutch line up (4-2-3-1) Stekelenburg; van der Wiel, Heitinga, Mathijsen, van Bronckhorst; van Bommel, de Jong; Robben, Sneijder, Kuyt; van Persie

Fearless prediction: 2-1 to Spain. Objectively speaking Spain are just the better team right now (Clearly I hope it will go Holland's way). I have no idea what kind of game this will be.

dinsdag 6 juli 2010

Holland v Uruguay pre-match thoughts

Still a crazy thought, The Netherlands in the semi final of this World Cup with football that is really unknown to the Dutch public; qualifications like workmanlike, ‘well organized’, defense first, win ugly and resiliency were used to describe German and Italian teams of the past, teams who we used to despise. Those qualifications can now be stated for this Oranje and we (Dutch public) are getting closer to loving this team.

Although the age of total football is long gone, (described in a great way by Raphael Honigstein on SI.com, here) the past few decades the intention of the Dutch team has always been: "win beautiful or don’t win at all". This Oranje has another mantra: “win first and if there is still time left, we will try to play some pretty football.”
It’s hard to put into words how big this change is in the identity of Dutch football. Maybe this is a good indication: former international Ruud Gullit said on espn soccernet (link: here) on February 8 of this year, he doubts Holland can win the worldcup:

"I have my doubts about whether Holland can win it, simply because we need to play well in all the games," he said. "The opposition seem to have sussed us out at the last few tournaments, which makes it difficult to play our game, but I hope we will do well. There is a great possibility to get through our group but it's going to be hard. I always hope that, when we get through our group, we can win games ugly - that would be a turning point."

Well, Holland has won their fair share of ugly games this tournament and in my view it has been a huge turning point of the faith of this team.

But let’s get back to reality first. The win against Brazil doesn’t mean anything if Holland loses to Uruguay. And although the mood in Holland is jubilant, I think many people realize that this game won’t be easy at all. Like all of Oranje’s opponents this worldcup, Uruguay will presumably play very defensively. This defensive playing style will cause Holland to play a slow, patient and (sadly) boring game.

(Germany is my favorite team to watch this worldcup and I will be rooting for them to reach the final. But I do like to point out that the Mannschaft had the luxury of playing attack minded teams (or horrible organized teams) like Australia, Ghana, England and Argentina. All of them played to Germany’s strengths rather than their weakness. Holland had the ‘pleasure’ of playing ultra defensive teams like Denmark, Japan, and Slovakia and against a team described as having the best defense at this worldcup: Brazil.)

For their attack, Uruguay will count on Diego Forlan and he will be a menace for the Dutch defense, especially with center back’s Heitinga and Mathijssen not being the most mobile in the World. But in my view the most danger will come from Uruguay’s right side with Cavani. I am still surprised no team at this worldcup has been able to get at 35 year old Gio van Bronckhorst. If the celeste is smart they will pin point the Dutch left back to launch their main attack, thereby also forcing Dirk Kuyt to put in a lot of defensive work making the Dutch left side almost impotent in attack.

Uruguay will be missing the irritating but still likable Suarez due to suspension. But the suspended player, who will possibly have the most influence on the game by his absence, is Nigel de Jong. De Jong is the Dutch main enforcer in midfield and there is no player in the squad who can replace his ball winning skills. This may force Oranje to put more pressure up high on Uruguay to win back possession, leaving space behind the Dutch back four. I would back Forlan to use this to his advantage, if he doesn’t play as deep like he did in previous games.

De Jong’s replacement will be Demy de Zeeuw. De Zeeuw is a decent midfielder and looks like De Jong a bit (he is also small and bald) but doesn’t have the intensity or aggressiveness De Jong has. He does have better passing skills and has a good goal scoring record for a holding midfielder. In The Netherlands he is known for the irritating manners Mark van Bommel is also famous for. A.I. a bit of a diver and succeeding in making opponents go mad.

The Dutch defense is solid but Brazil proved it’s certainly not ‘world class’. Mathijssen will be back to replace Andre Ooijer and although Ooijer had a very solid game against Brazil, Dutch blood pressure won’t rise to dangerous levels when Uruguay nears the Dutch back line. I hope for the same attacking intensity Holland showed against Brazil in the second half, where the Dutch attack finally showed to a certain extent what they are capable of. I expect Uruguay to swarm Robben, but this will leave more room to work with for Van Bommel, van Persie, Sneijder and even Kuyt.

All this said (and putting as much objectivity in my prediction as possible) I think Holland will win this game. I don’t see Uruguay stopping Robben without leaving a dangerous amount of space for Sneijder and Van Persie to exploit. If they fail, Holland has other viable options on the bench to bring in, like Elia, Van der Vaart and Huntelaar. I am not saying Uruguay isn’t dangerous but in my opinion the Netherlands has shown it’s just too solid, focused and resilient to let this unique opportunity pass by. It won’t be pretty or easy but somewhere, somehow Oranje will find a way to win.

Projected Dutch line up (4-2-3-1) Stekelenburg; Boulahrouz, Heitinga, Mathijsen, van Bronckhorst; van Bommel, de Zeeuw; Robben, Sneijder, Kuyt; van Persie

Fearless prediction: 2-1 to Holland. Game with few chances where Holland will be very patient and Uruguay will defend in numbers.

zondag 4 juli 2010

Holland v Brazil afterthoughts: Team Kuyt

Holland v Brazil 2-1
'10 Robinho
'53 Sneijder
'68 Sneijder

First off: Holland had no business being in that game in the first half. Brazil was better on all possible fronts. To be more accurate: Holland made Brazil look very good in the first half, even with this defensive team the ´seleção´ could play cliché jogo bonito and samba football.
In the interval I was considering if I should rush to learn who is riding in the Tour de France or just enjoy the sun. I was completely ready to just forget about the cruel game that is called football and that lot of orange impostors who think of themselves as professional footballers.

The only sound you could hear in the interval around the neighborhood were orange flags flapping in the summer breeze. I was actually surprised that my neighbor wasn’t busy removing the inflatable orange doll sitting on his balcony.

I decided to watch the second half just for a minute to make sure the self embarrassing process would continue. But it was kind of strange to see those orange dudes actually putting some pressure on those blue guys at the beginning of the second half. I made myself sit down and watch until Brazil made it two, what was surely just a matter of time. But then a series of unlikely events happened in quick succession: a mistake by the world’s best goalkeeper, a header by a dwarf, an attempt to amputate a leg (that didn’t injure a ‘man of glass’, what was surely the biggest surprise of the day) and loads of chances missed in the most comical ways possible. Causing me to jump up and down in ecstasy, screaming and sweating like a crazy man and pleading with a Japanese guy, who was 6000 miles away, to blow his whistle for the last time. The most remarkable turnaround in the history of oranje just happened, hours later I still couldn’t believe it.

Dirk Kuyt is surely the embodiment of this team, it’s kind of ugly, bulked up but not very fast, hardworking, you may not want to really see it but in the end he succeeds, well... sort of.
It’s certainly not pretty, the guys who should provide the flashiness: Van Persie, Sneijder, Robben and Van der Vaart haven’t clicked for one minute this world cup, while the blue collar players like De Jong, Van Bommel and Kuyt have earned the wins for oranje. Nobody could have guessed Holland would even get out of the group stage without ‘the big 4’ excelling. The defense which was rightly laughed at before the tournament now is a Dutch strength, proving that team organization is far more important than individually über talented defenders. Speaking of the Dutch defense, surprisingly Brazil was rarely able to trouble the almost retired Giovanni van Bronckhorst. Also if members of this seleção look back at this game, they must be tearing their hair out if they realize that the 36 years old, very slow and unemployed Adre Ooijer had a very comfortable game.

Coach Van Marwijk has been criticized by a big part of the Dutch media (and me) for his conservative playing style, but he should be applauded for the change of style by oranje after halftime. Any other coach would have made at least two substitutions after the disastrous first half, but Van Marwijk decided to keep his faith in this team. And the team rewarded him in the second half with the best Dutch performance so far.
Van Marwijk isn’t as quotable as Mourinho, doesn’t have the arrogance of Van Gaal or the charisma of Hiddink and he isn’t a tactical genius like Lippi. But he is a down to earth man, with decent coaching’s skills, who really hates outside distractions. He dealt admirably with possible problems like the ill advised Eljiro Elia internet video at the start of the tournament and the Van Persie/Sneijder saga, and made them seem like insignificant incidents. His mood doesn’t change a lot and always seems to have a calming influence on the team and the ‘outside world’. Also there is no danger Uruguay will be underestimated under Van Marwijk, as he can make his teams focus on their opponents like not many coaches can at this world cup. There is no doubt if his strategy is somewhat more adventurous he would be the perfect fit for this oranje.

The way this Dutch team plays is still a real issue in Holland. Even with the victory against Brazil, the tendency with the Dutch media and pundits is still: ‘we won, but...’. But if Holland actually becomes World Champion, I am sure everyone would forgive Bert, and will be held in very high regard in the Netherlands for the rest of his life.

Also many characterized the win against Brazil team as lucky. I will concede that the football Holland has shown is dull and, against Brazil they were thoroughly outplayed in the first half. But I won’t qualify them as lucky. Lucky how exactly? Where were the rattling crossbars against Brazil? Any clearances of the line? Where were those blown referee calls that benefited Holland? I didn’t see them. Maybe Sneijder’s first goal against Brazil? But wasn’t that the same luck Brazil got with the Dutch scandalous defending of Robinho’s goal? Dull? Yes. Outplayed at times? Definitely so. Lucky? No.

The (casual) fans don’t seem to be bothered by the way Holland win their games as there was a jubilant mood in the country just after the match. The last time there was this aura of happiness and relief Dennis Bergkamp scored his spectacular goal in the quarter finals of the 1998 world cup against Argentina.
On the hottest day of 2010, people were jumping in the (very filthy) Dutch canals and running around naked in our city centers. There is no telling what would happen if by some miracle Gio van Bronckhorst is able to receive the trophy on the 11th of July. Pandemonium, at least.


Golden clog
Although opinions are divided on his performance, I thought Nigel de Jong had a spectacular game. Never lost the ball, expertly patrolled midfield and stole the ball countless of times. For me he was a real Dutch destroyer, and there is no doubt Holland will miss him against Uruguay due to his suspension. I would like to see Van der Vaart at his position but considering Van Marwijk’s conservative ways, Demy de Zeeuw is the odds on favorite to play alongside Van Bommel.

vrijdag 2 juli 2010

Holland v Brazil pre-match thoughts

All logic points to a Brazil victory here. Brazil has the form, great team play, clinical in front of goal and ruthlessness in defense. This Dutch team hasn't shown any of these qualities so far in this tournament.

This doesn't mean Holland will just lay down and die. But they need a lot of luck and play a perfect game to go through.

Brazil’s main offensive weapons, Maicon, Robinho and Kaka are in prime position to attack the Dutch's weakest parts. Gio van Bronckhorst, who hasn't been tested this World Cup, has an alarming lack of pace and if he comes in 1v1 situation with Maicon, he will probably be destroyed. Bert van Marwijk will try to minimize Gio's problems by putting Dirk Kuyt, with his famous work-ethic, on the left side. Kaka and Robinho will no doubt try to test inexperienced right full back Gregory van der Wiel. Van der Wiel had a very bad game against Slovakia, and it has to be seen how he is going to cope against world class opposition. Don't be surprised if Van Marwijk puts Boulahrouz in for Van der Wiel if it will go bad on the Dutch right side.

The defensive qualities of Brazil are well known, and Holland doesn't have the team at the moment to really test them, apart maybe from Robben if he can go 1v1 against Bastos. I am almost hoping Holland will go behind, forcing Van Marwijk to change his conservative playing style. This will bring in Rafael van der Vaart at one of the holding midfield positions. With his offensive way of playing, good team play with Wesley Sneijder, and his trickery he will give Holland a distinct improvement going forward, and there is no doubt in my mind with this formation Oranje can really trouble Brazil's defense.

Most people in the Netherlands are pretty discouraged about Holland's chances in this game. But they are also curious where Holland stands under Van Marwijk. It's been a long time since Holland played a big game at a big tournament, also Oranje hasn't ever been really tested in their qualifying campaign or even in friendlies. It also will be the very first time that Holland isn't the favorite in a game since 2008, it's hard to say if this a good thing or not.
This game can have a big impact on the future of this Dutch team too. If Holland get embarrassed by Brazil, I can see Bert van Marwijk being done, even though results have been good, but the way of playing under Van Marwijk has been disappointing since the moment he's been hired. But if Holland wins, this can be the blueprint of future Dutch teams.


Projected Dutch line up (4-2-3-1) Stekelenburg; van der Wiel, Heitinga, Mathijsen, van Bronckhorst; van Bommel, de Jong; Robben, Sneijder, Kuyt; van Persie

Fearless prediction: 2-1 to Brazil. In the first half I expect a very defensive game. And as long as nobody scores it will continue that way.
Let's hope for an early goal, and a dramatic Dutch victory. But it's probably more realistic to expect Brazil to be just too solid for this Dutch team.