Holland v Uruguay pre-match thoughts

Still a crazy thought, The Netherlands in the semi final of this World Cup with football that is really unknown to the Dutch public; qualifications like workmanlike, ‘well organized’, defense first, win ugly and resiliency were used to describe German and Italian teams of the past, teams who we used to despise. Those qualifications can now be stated for this Oranje and we (Dutch public) are getting closer to loving this team.

Although the age of total football is long gone, (described in a great way by Raphael Honigstein on SI.com, here) the past few decades the intention of the Dutch team has always been: "win beautiful or don’t win at all". This Oranje has another mantra: “win first and if there is still time left, we will try to play some pretty football.”
It’s hard to put into words how big this change is in the identity of Dutch football. Maybe this is a good indication: former international Ruud Gullit said on espn soccernet (link: here) on February 8 of this year, he doubts Holland can win the worldcup:

"I have my doubts about whether Holland can win it, simply because we need to play well in all the games," he said. "The opposition seem to have sussed us out at the last few tournaments, which makes it difficult to play our game, but I hope we will do well. There is a great possibility to get through our group but it's going to be hard. I always hope that, when we get through our group, we can win games ugly - that would be a turning point."

Well, Holland has won their fair share of ugly games this tournament and in my view it has been a huge turning point of the faith of this team.

But let’s get back to reality first. The win against Brazil doesn’t mean anything if Holland loses to Uruguay. And although the mood in Holland is jubilant, I think many people realize that this game won’t be easy at all. Like all of Oranje’s opponents this worldcup, Uruguay will presumably play very defensively. This defensive playing style will cause Holland to play a slow, patient and (sadly) boring game.

(Germany is my favorite team to watch this worldcup and I will be rooting for them to reach the final. But I do like to point out that the Mannschaft had the luxury of playing attack minded teams (or horrible organized teams) like Australia, Ghana, England and Argentina. All of them played to Germany’s strengths rather than their weakness. Holland had the ‘pleasure’ of playing ultra defensive teams like Denmark, Japan, and Slovakia and against a team described as having the best defense at this worldcup: Brazil.)

For their attack, Uruguay will count on Diego Forlan and he will be a menace for the Dutch defense, especially with center back’s Heitinga and Mathijssen not being the most mobile in the World. But in my view the most danger will come from Uruguay’s right side with Cavani. I am still surprised no team at this worldcup has been able to get at 35 year old Gio van Bronckhorst. If the celeste is smart they will pin point the Dutch left back to launch their main attack, thereby also forcing Dirk Kuyt to put in a lot of defensive work making the Dutch left side almost impotent in attack.

Uruguay will be missing the irritating but still likable Suarez due to suspension. But the suspended player, who will possibly have the most influence on the game by his absence, is Nigel de Jong. De Jong is the Dutch main enforcer in midfield and there is no player in the squad who can replace his ball winning skills. This may force Oranje to put more pressure up high on Uruguay to win back possession, leaving space behind the Dutch back four. I would back Forlan to use this to his advantage, if he doesn’t play as deep like he did in previous games.

De Jong’s replacement will be Demy de Zeeuw. De Zeeuw is a decent midfielder and looks like De Jong a bit (he is also small and bald) but doesn’t have the intensity or aggressiveness De Jong has. He does have better passing skills and has a good goal scoring record for a holding midfielder. In The Netherlands he is known for the irritating manners Mark van Bommel is also famous for. A.I. a bit of a diver and succeeding in making opponents go mad.

The Dutch defense is solid but Brazil proved it’s certainly not ‘world class’. Mathijssen will be back to replace Andre Ooijer and although Ooijer had a very solid game against Brazil, Dutch blood pressure won’t rise to dangerous levels when Uruguay nears the Dutch back line. I hope for the same attacking intensity Holland showed against Brazil in the second half, where the Dutch attack finally showed to a certain extent what they are capable of. I expect Uruguay to swarm Robben, but this will leave more room to work with for Van Bommel, van Persie, Sneijder and even Kuyt.

All this said (and putting as much objectivity in my prediction as possible) I think Holland will win this game. I don’t see Uruguay stopping Robben without leaving a dangerous amount of space for Sneijder and Van Persie to exploit. If they fail, Holland has other viable options on the bench to bring in, like Elia, Van der Vaart and Huntelaar. I am not saying Uruguay isn’t dangerous but in my opinion the Netherlands has shown it’s just too solid, focused and resilient to let this unique opportunity pass by. It won’t be pretty or easy but somewhere, somehow Oranje will find a way to win.

Projected Dutch line up (4-2-3-1) Stekelenburg; Boulahrouz, Heitinga, Mathijsen, van Bronckhorst; van Bommel, de Zeeuw; Robben, Sneijder, Kuyt; van Persie

Fearless prediction: 2-1 to Holland. Game with few chances where Holland will be very patient and Uruguay will defend in numbers.