Holland v Slovakia pre match thoughts: Divisiveness

Thoughts from a Dutch perspective:

Happy thoughts:
Looking just at the players for Oranje and Slovakia there is really no comparison: almost all Dutchmen play for big European clubs like Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Bayern Munich the Slovakian players play for Ankaragucu, Spartak Trnava and Dundee United (yes, I know some of them also play for some decent sides, but this increases the effect).

While the Dutch team hasn't played anything near good football, they won all their games quite easily. And for some strange reason, opponents have found it very hard to score against a defense where 35 year old (and slow footed) Giovanni van Bronckhorst is part of.

Rafael van der Vaart looks doubtful for this game but Oranje has plenty options for his replacement. Eljiro Elia and Ibrahim Afellay both are in good form and they both will add speed to this Dutch team, something that is lacking when van der Vaart plays.

Robben is back and looks ready. He probably won't start but look for him to come on early in the second half, especially if, against all odds, it is all going wrong versus the Slovaks. This is an enormous luxury for van Marwijk: few teams can bring in a player of such ability. And even if he doesn't play well he will draw defenders to him, changing the game instantly.

Some popular pundits here in Holland, who presumably know what they are talking about since they are being paid to speak a bit about football, are absolutely convinced this Holland are going to tear the Slovaks apart and will win 3-0 maybe even 4-0. Yes, the Holland team that hasn't created a lot more then 4 chances this whole world cup...But these pundits must know what they are talking about, right?


Bad thoughts
Here is where divisiveness sets in, because not so popular pundits like top Chelsea scout Piet de Visser are predicting a very tough game. Slovakia are a very physical team and against such teams Holland historically struggles mightily.
I can't remember any games where the so called experts are so divided: you hardly can make sense of it all. I may go with the more serious experts here, and will be expecting a difficult game.

Marek Hamsik, arguably Slovakia's best player, is a type of player that will trouble Holland. While he and Andry Arshavin are hardly the same type but they both have excellent movement without the ball. (Arshavin was of course the player that destroyed Holland at Euro 2008). Hamsik will look to exploit the space left behind Holland's attacking full backs.

Slovakia has nothing to lose. They already overachieved by beating World Champion Italy, and have no incentive to play attacking football, making life easy for Oranje. Slovak moral will be high, and upsetting a 'big' football country like Holland will be the ultimate motivation for them.

If Holland might be so lucky to advance to the quarter finals, they will probably be without one or two key players. The referee Aberto Undiano was the one who, like a grumpy tax inspector punished every foul with a booking at the Germany- Serbia game, and also sent off Klose very harshly. Since six Dutch players are already on a booking, chances are that they will be missing a few important players against (probably) Brazil. And this Dutch squad isn't deep at all, so missing just a few players may cause huge problems.
van der Wiel, van Bronckhorst, de Jong, van der Vaart, van Persie & Kuyt are on a booking


Projected Dutch line up (4-2-3-1) Stekelenburg; van der Wiel, Heitinga, Mathijsen, van Bronckhorst; van Bommel, de Jong; Kuyt, Sneijder, Elia; van Persie

Fearless prediction: Holland will win 2-1. It will be a cagy (some would say boring) game with very few chances. But somehow Holland will find a way to win. This isn't your father's Oranje, with total football and clockwork orange and all that. This is the way Holland plays under van Marwijk, sadly we have to deal with it.